Media sexes up seismic severity shocker

Posted on April 10, 2007 by Chris Rowan

For seismologists, the vast disparity between the human lifespan and the timescales over which geological processes operate is not just a conceptual problem, but also a practical one. One of their most important tasks is to assess the “seismic hazard” – a probabilistic estimate of the severity of ground shaking from an earthquake an area is likely to experience over the next 50 or 100 years (the USGS have some good background on this) – useful information to have when considering where, and how strongly, to build high-rise buildings, bridges, or nuclear power plants. However, to accurately estimate this risk, you not only need to know where all the faults are, you also need to have some idea of their past form: how often do they rupture? How severe were the earthquakes when they did?

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Categories: earthquakes, geohazards, paper reviews

The perils of an empty frame

Posted on April 8, 2007 by Chris Rowan

Inspired by Sciblings Chris Mooney and Matt Nisbets’ recent piece in Science, which has sparked a fair amount of discussion (see Bora’s post for the best link roundup, as always), I’ve been trying to put my finger on precisely why the concept of framing vaguely troubles me. I think it can be distilled down into a question. You’re making a presentation on a complicated scientific issue, and you’re advocating a specific solution or point of view. What is the most preferable outcome?

  • Most people now understand the science but still disagree with your position.
  • Most people now agree with your position, but still don’t really understand the science.

Or, to put it another way, would the first outcome be considered a failure of framing? Would the second be considered a success?

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Categories: public science

Test Match Science Spring Showdown Special

Posted on April 6, 2007 by Chris Rowan

…a cold front will move in later, leading to scattered showers in the west. BBC Radio News, the time is now 3 minutes past 4, and now we rejoin Jonathan Agnew and the team back at The Oval.
JA: Welcome back to the final session of this very special Science Spring Showdown one day international: we’ve just reached the end of the tea break, and the Particle batsmen are just making their way to the crease; the F=ma team are already in position in the field, poised, eager almost.
For those of you just joining us, it looks like we could be in for a grandstand finish, a situation which did not look likely earlier in the day. F=ma won the toss and elected to bat, proceeding to post a hefty 347-3 in their 50 overs. The backbone of the innings was an unbeaten 186 from team captain Isaac Newton. Christopher Martin-Jenkins – Newton was certainly in magisterial form today.

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Categories: bloggery

What do you want to know about geology?

Posted on April 5, 2007 by Chris Rowan

Thermochronic suggests that we in the Geoblogosphere should start paying a bit more attention to what is written about our areas of specialisation on Wikipedia. I’ve been vaguely toying with this idea for a while, especially since I’ve started on the basic concepts posts. When I want to refer to a term or person that I think readers might want a bit more background on, I often check out the Wikipedia page, but a lot of the time I don’t actually feel comfortable linking to it because it just seems a little insipid, or wrongly emphasised, or just wrong. And adding a few relevant links to important papers might encourage the web-cribbers to actually read the source material rather than just somebody else’s potentially dodgy interpretation of it.
However, I can’t spend my entire time editing Wikipedia – when would I blo- ahem, do my research? That’s where you guys can help me out. If there are any geological pages you know of, or come across, which you think could do with an overhaul, let me know via comment or e-mail. It will help me direct my efforts to where they are most needed. Likewise, I am always ready to consider suggestions for future basics posts – let me know the areas you want illuminating, and I’ll crank up my hand-torch.

Categories: basics, public science

The Chronologer’s Quest

Posted on April 4, 2007 by Chris Rowan

I wouldn’t mind sharing a pint or three with Patrick Wyse Jackson. As he works in Dublin it’s guaranteed to be a fine evening regardless, but his recent book The Chronologers’ Quest: The Search for the Age of the Earth* also shows that he probably can’t be beaten as a storehouse of interesting tales from the early history of geology, and the pioneers who aided its growth into a mature analytical science. The Chronologer’s Quest is his account of an important aspect of this development: the struggle to determine the age of the Earth.

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Categories: deep time, geology