Note to media: “speculation” is not a synonym for “discovery”

I’m feeling a bit tetchy this week, and it’s not being helped by the fact that the media output from the AAAS conference, currently on in Chicago, is being dominated by stuff that one might charitably refer to as “somewhat speculative”. First-up was a talk by Dr. Alan Boss, which got headlines such as the BBC’s ‘Galaxy has ‘billions of Earths’:

So far, telescopes have been able to detect just over 300 planets outside our Solar System.

Very few of these would be capable of supporting life, however. Most are gas giants like our Jupiter, and many orbit so close to their parent stars that any microbes would have to survive roasting temperatures.

But, based on the limited numbers of planets found so far, Dr Boss has estimated that each Sun-like star has on average one “Earth-like” planet.

Erm… based on what, exactly? The preceding two paragraphs indicate that it’s certainly not the current census of extra-solar planets. You could argue that present trends towards the detection of smaller and/or less closely orbiting extra-solar planets indicate that what we’ve seen so far has been biased by the limitations of our technology, and therefore as soon as we get the ability to detect earth-like bodies there’s a good possibility we will indeed start finding them. There are some indications from a slightly longer write-up at PhysOrg that this was indeed what Dr. Boss was arguing (but note the equally breathlessly inaccurate headline). It’s an interesting discussion, and if I was forced to put some money down I’d be inclined to agree with his prediction, but I’m not particularly impressed with the failure to properly delineate between a possibility and an actual discovery.
Exhibit B was today’s reports that Alien life ‘may exist among us’:

Our planet may harbour forms of “weird life” unrelated to life as we know it, according to Professor Paul Davies, a physicist at Arizona State University.

This “shadow life” may be hidden in toxic arsenic lakes or in boiling deep sea hydrothermal vents, he says.

He has called on scientists to launch a “mission to Earth” by trawling hostile environments for signs of bio-activity.

Weird life could even be living among us, in forms which we don’t yet recognise, he told the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) meeting in Chicago.

“We don’t have to go to other planets to find weird life.

“It could be right in front of our noses – or even in our noses,” said the physicist.

Again, another intriguing possibility, but as far as I know there is absolutely zero evidence for a “shadow biosphere”. On this one, I’d probably be with the doubters: could life independently pop up again on a planet where life has already developed (it’s hard to imagine metabolically useful chemicals being able to get their own chemistry going without being scavenged by microbes)? But it does bring up a lot of interesting questions about how you’d tell, which are also relevant to detecting life outside our planet. Nonetheless, when you get down to it, this is untethered speculation, and I’m not sure that the reporting really makes that clear.
Am I the only one who finds this a little annoying? It’s not that it isn’t interesting to hear about this stuff, but the blurring between data and informed (or not-so-informed) conjecture is somewhat maddening. Surely there are some actual scientific results being reported at the AAAS?

Categories: general science, planets, public science, ranting

Science Book Lovers’ Meme

GrrlScientist has tagged me with this rather interesting meme:

Imagine: YOU are asked to assign a half-dozen-or-so books as required reading for ALL science majors at a college as part of their 4-year
degree; NOT technical or text books, but other works, old or new, touching upon the nature of science, philosophy, thought, or methodology in a way that a practicing scientist might gain from.

This question actually touches on something I think is actually lacking from a lot of science education – a bit more perspective on why science is the way it is, the stories behind the development of your field, and what it means to be a scientist. Of course, the writing that actually gives you such insights is a very personal thing, but here are a few books that have, in some way, expanded my mind:

  1. The Demon Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark by Carl Sagan. Reading anything by Carl Sagan is likely to do your brain a power of good, but the unifying theme of this particular book – the importance, indeed the necessity, of scientific thinking outside of the laboratory – makes it the one scientific book that I feel everyone should read. Which makes it doubly depressing that it appears to be out of print.

  2. Paradigms Lost: Images of Man in the Mirror of Science by John L. Casti. I read this book when I was 13 or 14, and enjoyed it immensely, both for it’s scope – the ‘Big Questions’ in science that it covered ranged from the origin of life to the acquisition of language, from artificial intelligence to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence – and the measured way that the author weighs up the various different theories on offer for each of these questions. It also contained a very lucid discussion of various philosophies of science, up to and including Thomas Kuhn’s “paradigm shifts”. So although it is possibly a little dated in places (a later book, entitled Paradigms Regained, claims to be an update), it remains a good account of how science progresses at the cutting edge.

  3. Plate Tectonics: An Insider’s History of the Modern Theory of the Earth by Naomi Oreskes. Of course, when I say it’s by Naomi Oreskes, that’s not strictly true: she compiled it and wrote the (very good) introduction, but this is principally an eyewitness account of the development of plate tectonics, from the various viewpoints of the people right at the centre of the whole thing in the 50s and 60s. If you want an idea what a scientific revolution actually looks like to the scientists caught up in it, this is the place to get it, with the added bonus of insightful geological commentary from some extremely smart people (Peter Molnar’s chapter is particularly good).

  4. Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman! by Ralph Leighton and Richard Feynman. I recommend this with some trepidation. On the one hand it is a perennially timely reminder that you should not be afraid to go your own way in science; but on the other, it may encourage the pernicious “have to be a hyper-genius to make it in science” meme. Nonetheless, it will make you laugh. A lot.

  5. Guns, Germs and Steel and/or Collapse by Jared Diamond. Both of these books have a wonderful breadth, with their central theses drawing from a variety of disciplines and ranging across the whole of human history and geography. The central thesis of Guns Germs, and Steel, and it’s explanation for why Europeans ended up conquering Africa and the Americas, and not vice versa, blew me away the first time I read it, although the tendency for it to be re-iterated at the beginning and end of every chapter does get a bit wearing. Collapse suffers less from this, and is perhaps more relevant to the times we live in; and it certainly gives you a valuable new perspective on how environmental degradation can be an almost unseen driver of conflict in the modern world.

  6. For my last suggestion, I’m not going to recommend any title in particular: I think it would be a really great idea just to hand out guides to the fauna and the flora, the geology and landscapes, of the local area. Science is about going and looking; so people should be encouraged to go and look.

Everyone should consider themselves as tagged for this one; I’d be really interested to hear your suggestions, particularly ones with a earth science theme, as I had trouble thinking of many that particularly stood out (although John Mcphee is currently – finally – on my to-read pile).

Categories: bloggery, general science

Darwin, Deep Time and Evolution

DarwinBadge.gifOne of the books that Charles Darwin took with him on the voyage of the Beagle was Charles Lyell’s newly-published Principles of Geology. Lyell was an advocate of the uniformitarian views of James Hutton. Without getting bogged down in the details of the uniformitarianism/catastrophism debate that raged in the late 18th and early 19th centuries – although I believe most popular accounts manage to unfairly caricature both sides* – the main argument was over whether the geological record could be interpreted in terms of the processes we see operating in the modern world, or were witness to a world which followed fundamentally different rules. Lyell was, of course, an advocate of the former; and in Principles he argued that the catastrophists’ fatal error was their failure to recognise the great age of the Earth, which couldn’t help but warp their conclusions. By way of analogy, he asked his readers to imagine the results if Egyptian archaeologists of the day had

…visited that country with a firm belief that the banks of the Nile were never peopled by the human race before the beginning of the nineteenth century… it is easy to perceive what extravagant systems they would frame, while under the influence of this delusion, to account for the monuments discovered [there]. The sight of the pyramids, obelisks, colossal statues, and ruined temples, would will them with such astonishment, that… they might incline at first to refer the construction of such stupendous works to some superhuman powers of a primeval world. [p 27-28**]

We should be warranted in ascribing the erection of the great pyramid to superhuman power, if we were convinced that it was raised in one day; and if we imagine, in the same manner, a mountain chain to have been elevated, during an equally small fraction of the time which was really occupied in upheaving it, we might then be justified in inferring that the subterranean movements were once far more energetic than in our own times. [p 30**]

Lyell argued, as Hutton did before him, for the power of incremental change when it is multiplied by Deep Time. Small changes to the surface of the earth, which seem insignificant from our limited temporal perspective, can, when added together multiple times over millions of years, produce dramatic results. A river can carve a vast canyon; a series of earthquakes can build a vertiginous mountain range. Darwin clearly took this lesson on board: in his own observations of the geological processes at work in South America, he described the effects of the Concepcion earthquake, which uplifted beaches and shell-encrusted boulders along a large stretch of the west coast as “one step in the elevation of a mountain-chain”, clearly aware of how repeated small uplifts over millions of years could have eventually have resulted in the Andes.

It is striking that it is exactly this principle – the cumulative power of incremental change – that lies at the heart of Darwin’s evolutionary thesis. Just like an individual earthquake, or the tiny amount of rock carried away annually by a river, the change within species due to natural selection is quite small if considered over years or decades (although, as we have since discovered, it is observable in certain circumstances). Yet Darwin was able to grasp how far it could go, when given geological time to work with: apply consistent pressure for a few tens or hundreds of thousands of years, and those small changes start to add up.

So I’d like to suggest that Darwin’s appreciation of geological processes, and his grasp of the depth of geological time, was central to his understanding of how natural selection could shape and rework life along the widely divergent paths seen both in the wild diversity of the modern world, and the evolutionary history recorded in the fossil record. I’m not arguing that you needed to be a geologist to come up with the mechanism of Natural Selection, but I am arguing that you needed a geological perspective to truly appreciate its power. Darwin’s geological training was an essential part of the process that made The Origin of Species such a far-reaching synthesis.

Furthermore, if you want to understand why I admire Charles Darwin so much, and consider his birthday to be worthy of celebration, then consider that the mark of a great scientist, and a truly original thinker, is to take ideas and concepts outside the realm in which they were first honed, and apply them in a new one. Which is exactly what Charles Darwin did: he saw how the geological ideas of uniformitarianism and Deep Time could be profitably applied to the biological realm. Science is as much about process as results, and in his careful and detailed observations of the world around him, the rigour with which he developed his ideas, and the breadth of his thinking, Darwin provides an example that we can all look up to.

*to borrow a phrase from Brian, I believe that generally the textbooks are more cardboard than paper.
**page numbers from the Penguin Abridged edition. Google Books has scans of some of the early editions

Categories: deep time, general science, geology

A Martian Giant’s Causeway

ResearchBlogging.orgThe HiRISE camera just keeps snapping cool things, and in the latest issue of Geology, Milazzo et al. have spotted something particularly cool in this image of the rim of this crater. It seem this particular impact punched right through a large basalt lava flow, and tilted the exposed edges skywards, allowing us to see: columnar basalts!

HiRISE pictures of columnar basalts on Mars

Continue reading

Categories: geology, paper reviews, planets, volcanoes

Satellite Imagery of the Australian Bush Fires

NASA’s Earth observatory has posted a couple of images of the bush fires currently devastating southeast Australia.
7 February

AusBushFires2.jpg

9 February

AusBushFires.jpg

The sheer scale of these fires is scary; presumably, things are not helped by the drought Australia has been experiencing for the past few years. Of course, what’s even more scary is that least some of the fires were started deliberately. The fact that it’s a recurring problem seems to rule out mere thoughtlessness, and suggests real malice.
There’s a Google Map showing all the fires and their current status, fed by data from the Victoria Fire Service, here.

Categories: environment, geohazards