{"id":981,"date":"2013-06-03T22:34:56","date_gmt":"2013-06-03T21:34:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/?p=981"},"modified":"2013-06-03T23:31:40","modified_gmt":"2013-06-03T22:31:40","slug":"ash-cloud-travel-insurance-why-scientists-should-blog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/2013\/06\/ash-cloud-travel-insurance-why-scientists-should-blog\/","title":{"rendered":"Ash cloud travel insurance \/ why scientists should blog"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was quoted on the Daily Telegraph website at the weekend, in an article about the number of travel insurance companies whose policies cover volcanic ash.\u00a0 I’d answered some questions from the author by email, then he told me when it was published so I could see how it turned out.\u00a0 You can read the article here: http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/finance\/personalfinance\/insurance\/10092154\/Just-three-travel-policies-cover-volcanic-ash.html<\/a><\/p>\n

The article includes lots of good information and gets a big thumbs-up for explaining that the much-bigger 2011 Gr\u00edmsv\u00f6tn eruption caused little disruption compared to Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull 2010, but I thought that the general tone was a bit too alarmist.<\/p>\n

I was also interested to see how my quotes were used.\u00a0 The following line in my email:<\/p>\n

Hekla and Katla are both ‘overdue’ for an eruption e.g. the time since their last eruption is longer than the average time between other recent eruptions.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

appeared in the article as:<\/p>\n

Hekla and Katla are both overdue for an eruption.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The words are mine, but the message is different and without the explanation it seems a lot more urgent.\u00a0 Katla has been ‘overdue’ since before I was born.\u00a0 No real harm is done, and perhaps I am being a control-freak, but no volcanologist wants to be associated with scaremongering, either.<\/p>\n

This experience sums up a big reason why scientists should blog.\u00a0 News media have limited space, overly-enthusiastic headline writers and demanding advertisers.\u00a0 Blogs don’t.\u00a0 They provide all the space scientists need to explain new research, including all the complexities and limitations, and what they write is exactly the information that the reader gets.<\/p>\n

Ash cloud insurance<\/h2>\n

The article also made me think about the concept of ash cloud insurance.\u00a0 Some companies now cover volcanic ash-related claims, some don’t, and others charge a special supplement of up to \u00a310.<\/p>\n

All insurance is a form of gambling.\u00a0 If you were to bet \u00a310 that your \u00a31,000 holiday would be cancelled, because the airport was closed by volcanic ash on the day that you were supposed to leave, you would only be better off in the long run if the chances of this happening were more than 1 in 100.\u00a0 Your 99 ‘losses’ of \u00a310 each would be cancelled out by one ‘win’ of \u00a31000.<\/p>\n

Planes have been forbidden to fly through volcanic ash for about 20 years now.\u00a0 In that time, there have been six eruptions in Iceland (Gr\u00edmsv\u00f6tn 1996, Gr\u00edmsv\u00f6tn 1998, Hekla 2000, Gr\u00edmsv\u00f6tn 2004, Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull 2010, Gr\u00edmsv\u00f6tn 2011).\u00a0 Because of these, at least some UK airports were closed for about 10 days in total (~8 during Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull 2010, ~2 during Gr\u00edmsv\u00f6tn 2011).\u00a0 Therefore, the chances of flights being cancelled on any given day are somewhere in the region of 1 in 730.\u00a0 This is equivalent to just 0.14 in 100, so that extra ash cloud fee is looking pretty expensive.<\/p>\n

This is a simplistic analysis, and things are obviously a bit more complicated in real life, but you get the idea.\u00a0 In gambling in general, the house wins in the end.\u00a0 In ash cloud insurance, the house can win big.<\/p>\n

\n

Further reading<\/h2>\n

If you want to learn about this topic in more detail, here are my answers to the emailed questions in full:<\/p>\n

1. How likely is it that Eyjafjallajokull will erupt in the foreseeable future?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Not that likely.\u00a0 There has been little seismic activity there since the eruption ended and previous eruptions have been hundreds of years apart.<\/p>\n

2. If it does erupt do you think it’s likely that we will see similar levels of disruption to the 2010 eruption?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Definitely not. The changes in rules for aviation during the E2010 eruption mean planes can fly in much higher ash concentrations than they used to be able to.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/2012\/04\/an-icelandic-eruption-100-times-more-powerful-than-eyjafjallajokull\/<\/a><\/p>\n

3. Are there any other volcanos that are likely to erupt in the near future, which could cause major travel and local disruption?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In general, we would expect an eruption in Iceland every ~5 years and a direct hit from ash every ~20 years.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/2011\/02\/ash-cloud-closes-airports-chances\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Hekla and Katla are both ‘overdue’ for an eruption e.g. the time since their last eruption is longer than the average time between other recent eruptions.\u00a0 Check the Smithsonian website for details.\u00a0 Of these, a Katla eruption could be very damaging within Iceland:<\/p>\n

http:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/2011\/11\/why-people-are-scared-of-katla\/<\/a><\/p>\n

The amount of travel disruption would depend on the length and size of the eruption.\u00a0 A long eruption would be much more disruptive.<\/p>\n

Other explosive eruptions from ice-covered volcanoes could produce a lot of ash, too, but would hopefully be short-lived:<\/p>\n

http:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/2012\/12\/gas-makes-subglacial-rhyolite-explode\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Large lava-producing fissure eruptions, such as Laki (from the Gr\u00edmsv\u00f6tn system) and Eldgj\u00e1 (from the Katla system) are the worst case scenario as they could last months and release large quantities of toxic gas.\u00a0 But these are rare (e.g. once per 500 years).<\/p>\n

4. Finally, to what extent do you believe that the early warning technology that has been developed by the Norwegian Institute of Air Research will prove successful?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I think that this method has potential and I think that Easyjet deserve credit for investing in research and technology.\u00a0 The idea behind it is the same as satellites currently use to recognise ash clouds and the main scientist involved (Fred Prata) is a real expert in this field.\u00a0 I’m looking forward to them announcing results of their tests to show how well it works.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was quoted on the Daily Telegraph website at the weekend, in an article about the number of travel insurance companies whose policies cover volcanic ash.\u00a0 I’d answered some questions from the author by email, then he told me when … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=981"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/981\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":996,"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/981\/revisions\/996"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/all-geo.org\/volcan01010\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}