Earthquake prediction is a fool’s errand

Predict_Quakes

Sketch plot of relationship between the timescale of an earthquake prediction and the likelihood of it being true - the curve is a step function, showing a high chance of being wrong for all periods of less than a few centuries

Our certainty about an earthquake occurring within a particular timeframe is only high over periods of centuries or more. For anything less, our prediction has a very high chance of being wrong.

Sketch plot of relationship between the timescale of an earthquake prediction and the likelihood of it being true – the curve is a step function, showing a high chance of being wrong for all periods of less than a few centuries

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