Because both Ole and Kim have already provided astute and insightful commentary, there’s no real need for me to spend much time on the media storm surrounding Giampaolo Giuliani, who has been loudly claiming vindication after his warnings about an imminent earthquake in the region were shut down by the Italian authorities at the end of March. Suffice to say, one successful “prediction” (if you count within a week and 30 km as successful) does not a robust warning system make: making the leap from elevated radon levels – or any of the other proposed precursors, like low frequency EM radiation – to a useful prediction is fraught with as-yet-unsolved problems. Chief among these are distinguishing false positives (you get the precursor, but no big earthquake) and understanding what, exactly, these signals are telling us about the stress state of the crust, so we can pin down potential magnitudes and timescales beyond “somewhere around here, maybe sometime soon.”
Any geologist would be celebrating a genuine, proven, method of earthquake prediction: but we’re clearly not there yet. Right now, the best we can get is a hazy view of tectonic storm clouds building on the horizon, and we lack even the equivalent of a barometer, let alone advanced tools like weather satellites, to give us a more specific forecast. It would be irresponsible to claim otherwise.
Search this blog
- The Napa Valley quake, and why California is (geologically) not part of America at all.
- Scenic Saturday: Crossbeds on the Edge
- Fieldwork should be safe and welcoming for all. Currently, it’s not.
- Now you see it, now you don’t: the disappearing and reappearing waters of the River Manifold
- 10 years of scientific career evolution: from springs to stormwater, student to teacher
- A ton of 2+ year-old AGU journal articles are now open access!
- Reconstructing ocean spreading when half your record is now in the mantle (or: a plug for my new paper)
- Mammals March Madness and slight silliness from your bloggers
- On The Napa Valley quake, and why California is (geologically) not part of America at all.:
- Lockwood: For the first Accretionary Wedge I hosted, My post was more or less focused on the lack of... Read
- Chris Rowan: Grrr. I keep on getting that wrong… thanks for the quick heads up! Read
- Kim: The fault tips curve toward each other! It’s so gorgeously textbook! (Also, east of the San Andreas.... Read
- Steve Watson: On our last visit to the UK, my cousin took us out for a ramble above Hathersage. There were lots... Read
- AgTerrane: Back in the early 70′s I was studying agriculture. Women were actually banned from fieldwork... Read
- Christie: These stats are disturbing; I wonder what the numbers would look like for interactions NOT in the... Read